Markets see 70% likelihood of Fed December rate hike


NEW YORK (Scrap Register): Analysts said there is about a 70% probability the Federal Open Market Committee will hike U.S. interest rates in December.

Wednesday’s release of minutes from the September meeting show that the decision to leave rates alone was a close call, but did not unsettle markets since investors suspected this was the case, said Commerzbank.

“Three voting members out of seven favored an immediate hike, but from the tone of the minutes, it seems that others held off only on the understanding that the central bank would raise rates prior to year-end,” Commerzbank added.

“The futures curve now shows a 70% probability that the Fed will raise rates in December, although a minority market view maintains that a move could occur before then,” Commerzbank noted.

Edward Meir, commodities consultant with INTL FCStone, says: “We remain convinced that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December. According to the Fed fund futures, this is priced in at a probability of roughly 70%. Having said that, any further tightening of monetary policy would probably happen only very slowly after that.”

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