NEW YORK (Scrap Register): Credit Suisse still looks for $1,400-an-ounce gold by the fourth quarter. For now, markets will be watching for the outcome of a two-day meeting of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee that ends Wednesday, with the consensus view that policymakers will up the Federal funds rate to 1%-1.25%.
However, recent U.S. economic data has been weaker than expectations and the Fed’s ‘dot plot’ could show a dovish move, Credit Suisse added.
Analysts said their bullish gold view for $1,400 gold by the fourth quarter is based on expectations that U.S. real rates will surprise to the downside, U.S. dollar strength will wane, a dovish central-bank approach to future monetary policy, continued robust Chinese investment demand, and an elevated probability of a disruptive geopolitical event.
They also cited current positioning in gold, commenting that this is 6% below the 2016 peak for exchange-traded funds and 38% below on Comex.