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Global Copper market indicates a surplus of about 60,000 tons: ICSG

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LONDON (Scrap Register): Global refined copper market balance for the first four months of 2018 indicates a surplus of about 60,000 tons, according to International Copper Study Group.

In developing its global market balance, ICSG uses an apparent demand calculation for China that does not take into account changes in unreported stocks [State Reserve Bureau (SRB), producer, consumer, merchant/trader, bonded].

To facilitate globalmarket  analysis,  however,  an  additionalline  item—Refined  World  Balance  Adjusted  for  Chinese  Bonded  Stock  Changes—isincluded  in  the  attached  table  that  adjusts  the  world  refined copper  balance  based  on  an  average  estimate  of  changes  inunreported inventories provided by three consultants with expertise in China’s copper market.

In the first four months of 2018, the world refined copper balance adjusted for changes in Chinese bonded stocks indicated amarket surplus of around 50,000 tons.

China was the biggest contributor to growth with apparentusage (excluding changes in unreported stocks) increasing by around 5%, driven by a 10% increase in net refined copper imports.

Preliminary data indicates that world ex-China usage declined by 1%. Among other major copper using countries, usage increased in India and the EU but declined in Japan, the United States andSouth Korea.

In the first quarter of 2018, the global refined copper balance adjusted for changes in Chinese bonded stocks indicated a market surplus of around 140,000 tons.

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