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Global Lead mine supply likely to advance to 4.77 million tons in 2019

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LONDON (Scrap Register): The International Lead and Zinc Study expects global lead mine supply to fall by 0.4% to 4.58 million tons in 2018, and then to increase by 4.1% to 4.77 million tons in 2019.

In 2018, lower output of lead concentrates in Australia, China, Kazakhstan and the United States is expected to balance increases in Cuba and India.

Some of the new mining projects coming on-stream, including Coeur Mining’s Silvertip mine in Canada and Vedanta’s Gamsberg operation in South Africa, are not scheduled to be commissioned until the third and fourth quarters and will therefore have a greater impact on 2019 output.

The forecast rise in global lead concentrates supply in 2019 will be driven mainly by higher production in Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, India, Kazakhstan and South Africa. In Europe, after increasing by 2.8% in 2018, lead mine output is expected grow by a further 3.7%.

Rises of 0.4% to 11.59 million tons and 2.2% to 11.84 million tons are forecast for world refined lead metal production in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

The modest rise in refined lead metal output anticipated for 2018 is mainly a consequence of increases in Australia, India, Kazakhstan and the United States that are expected to offset lower output in Canada and Germany and a 1.4% reduction in China, where a number of secondary smelters that failed to meet new environmental regulations have been permanently closed.

Production in 2019 will benefit from higher output in Europe and the United States where output is forecast to grow by 3.9% and 2.4% respectively. Refined lead supply in Australia, China, India and the Republic of Korea is also expected to increase.

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