PITTSBURGH (Scrap Register): Alcoa continues to project a global aluminum deficit, ranging between 800 thousand and 1.2 million metric tons for full-year 2019, down slightly from the previous quarter’s estimate of a deficit between 1.0 million and 1.4 million metric tons.

Global aluminum demand for full-year 2019 is now estimated to be lower year-over-year, ranging between negative 0.6 percent and 0.4 percent, compared to the previous quarter’s full-year estimate of global demand growth between 1.25 percent and 2.25 percent.

The change is driven by weakening macroeconomic conditions, trade tensions between the US and China, and contracting manufacturing activity, especially in the global automotive sector, the company said in a release.

In the alumina market, Alcoa projects a global surplus for 2019, ranging between 1 million and 1.8 million metric tons, up from last quarter’s estimate of 500 thousand metric tons to 1.3 million metric tons. The change is driven by faster restarts and expansions in the world ex-China as well as by lower alumina demand due to disruptions at several aluminum smelters in China, it said.

The bauxite market is also expected to have a larger surplus in 2019 ranging between 15 million and 19 million tonnes.

“The increase is due to higher supply from Guinea, which is partially offset by stronger demand from Chinese inland refineries,” the company said.